Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 0.7 | 7.1% | 8 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 1.1 | 11.5% | 13 | 0.1% |
| 20-29 | 8 | 2.1 | 14.2% | 16 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 2.1 | 16.8% | 19 | 0.14% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 1.0 | 12.4% | 14 | 0.13% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 2.0 | 15.9% | 18 | 0.14% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.3 | 11.5% | 13 | 0.11% |
| 70+ | 2 | 1.7 | 10.6% | 12 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 30 | 12.1 | 100% | 113 | 0.11% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 01 | 30089 | 231280 | 715 | 185 | 80 |
| Apr 02 | 30093 | 231481 | 717 | 185 | 75 |
| Apr 03 | 30097 | 231555 | 717 | 185 | 73 |
| Apr 04 | 30112 | 231731 | 718 | 185 | 78 |
| Apr 05 | 30125 | 231935 | 718 | 185 | 83 |
| Apr 06 | 30138 | 231951 | 718 | 185 | 95 |
| Apr 07 | 30168 | 232732 | 718 | 185 | 113 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 01 | 18620 | 153681 | 698 | 179 | 31 |
| Apr 02 | 18621 | 153807 | 698 | 179 | 25 |
| Apr 03 | 18621 | 153836 | 698 | 179 | 24 |
| Apr 04 | 18623 | 153933 | 698 | 179 | 22 |
| Apr 05 | 18631 | 154111 | 698 | 179 | 30 |
| Apr 06 | 18635 | 154132 | 698 | 179 | 34 |
| Apr 07 | 18644 | 154487 | 698 | 179 | 38 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.6% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 0.6 | 15.8% | 6 | 0.07% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.6 | 10.5% | 4 | 0.06% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 0.6 | 21.1% | 8 | 0.1% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 0.7 | 13.2% | 5 | 0.06% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.6 | 15.8% | 6 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.4 | 13.2% | 5 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.1 | 7.9% | 3 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 9 | 3.6 | 100% | 38 | 0.06% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 01 | 13440 | 89890 | 544 | 143 | 16 |
| Apr 02 | 13440 | 89930 | 544 | 143 | 16 |
| Apr 03 | 13442 | 89969 | 544 | 143 | 16 |
| Apr 04 | 13445 | 90038 | 546 | 143 | 17 |
| Apr 05 | 13453 | 90096 | 546 | 143 | 25 |
| Apr 06 | 13459 | 90102 | 546 | 143 | 31 |
| Apr 07 | 13462 | 90254 | 547 | 143 | 34 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.4 | 14.7% | 5 | 0.09% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 0.4 | 8.8% | 3 | 0.07% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.6 | 11.8% | 4 | 0.07% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.0 | 26.5% | 9 | 0.18% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.3 | 8.8% | 3 | 0.04% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.1 | 8.8% | 3 | 0.05% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.9 | 20.6% | 7 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 3 | 3.7 | 100% | 34 | 0.08% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 01 | 34676 | 309642 | 1023 | 181 | 121 |
| Apr 02 | 34679 | 309839 | 1023 | 181 | 110 |
| Apr 03 | 34684 | 309973 | 1023 | 181 | 93 |
| Apr 04 | 34691 | 310207 | 1023 | 181 | 87 |
| Apr 05 | 34708 | 310454 | 1023 | 181 | 99 |
| Apr 06 | 34717 | 310502 | 1023 | 181 | 106 |
| Apr 07 | 34740 | 311069 | 1023 | 181 | 109 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.1 | 14.7% | 16 | 0.14% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 2.0 | 16.5% | 18 | 0.11% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 1.9 | 15.6% | 17 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 1.9 | 17.4% | 19 | 0.14% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 1.6 | 14.7% | 16 | 0.12% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 1.4 | 14.7% | 16 | 0.11% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.4 | 3.7% | 4 | 0.03% |
| 70+ | 2 | 0.4 | 2.8% | 3 | 0.02% |
| All ages | 23 | 10.7 | 100% | 109 | 0.09% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 01 | 124435 | 2420128 | 2533 | 506 | 994 |
| Apr 02 | 124546 | 2421422 | 2533 | 506 | 1006 |
| Apr 03 | 124607 | 2422263 | 2535 | 506 | 963 |
| Apr 04 | 124732 | 2423902 | 2536 | 506 | 990 |
| Apr 05 | 124937 | 2426253 | 2539 | 506 | 1141 |
| Apr 06 | 125014 | 2426977 | 2540 | 506 | 1180 |
| Apr 07 | 125315 | 2432593 | 2544 | 506 | 1375 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 28 | 17.1 | 12.7% | 174 | 0.29% |
| 10-19 | 37 | 15.1 | 10.7% | 147 | 0.21% |
| 20-29 | 64 | 25.4 | 17.4% | 239 | 0.23% |
| 30-39 | 49 | 25.6 | 20.4% | 281 | 0.37% |
| 40-49 | 45 | 18.9 | 13.4% | 184 | 0.28% |
| 50-59 | 38 | 14.7 | 9.1% | 125 | 0.19% |
| 60-69 | 22 | 12.9 | 8.4% | 115 | 0.21% |
| 70+ | 18 | 10.7 | 8% | 110 | 0.22% |
| All ages | 301 | 140.4 | 100% | 1375 | 0.25% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 01 | 1586037 | 14115876 | 63363 | 14337 | 4306 |
| Apr 02 | 1586389 | 14124861 | 63371 | 14337 | 4215 |
| Apr 03 | 1586636 | 14130760 | 63378 | 14338 | 4021 |
| Apr 04 | 1587188 | 14141669 | 63396 | 14338 | 4165 |
| Apr 05 | 1587977 | 14156190 | 63405 | 14340 | 4704 |
| Apr 06 | 1588689 | 14160141 | 63411 | 14340 | 5186 |
| Apr 07 | 1590205 | 14199752 | 63434 | 14344 | 6235 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 124 | 59.3 | 9.4% | 589 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 149 | 72.6 | 10.8% | 675 | 0.09% |
| 20-29 | 274 | 105.9 | 15.3% | 957 | 0.13% |
| 30-39 | 290 | 111.3 | 17.4% | 1087 | 0.14% |
| 40-49 | 222 | 89.7 | 13.8% | 861 | 0.12% |
| 50-59 | 193 | 80.3 | 12.6% | 785 | 0.1% |
| 60-69 | 146 | 72.0 | 11.1% | 691 | 0.09% |
| 70+ | 118 | 64.9 | 9.5% | 590 | 0.09% |
| All ages | 1516 | 655.9 | 100% | 6235 | 0.11% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-04-30 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 14135"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges